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Monday, 29 March 2010

Speedendurance.com

How Fast Can Usain Bolt Run the 300 meters?

Posted: 28 Mar 2010 09:00 AM PDT

Usain Bolt will run a 300m at the Ostrava Golden Spike on May 27, 2010. I am tempted to go there since Ostrava is a cheap 2 hour flight from Rome.

There's no doubt in my mind he can run under 31 seconds if he tries. Whether he breaks Michael Johnson's World Record of 30.85, which was set in "altitude", is another story. Bolt already has 4 world records (100m, 150m, 200m, and 4×100m relay).

Why not add a 5th World Record (or World Best if you really want to get technical?)

Why not try to be the Tommie Smith of the 1960's and go for 11 world records concurrently? Jamaica can easily fill a 4×200m relay pool to break the record.

In his 45.86 400m last February, he split 300 meters at 32.6. This time, he'll have to go all out.

The big question is lane draw. The inside 4 or 5 lanes starts on the tip of the curve. Lane 6 through 9 starts in a straight line on the back stretch. When Michael Johnson set the WR, he requested lane 6 to take advantage of this fact.

How to Convert a 300m time from 200m

The answer is, you can't, as everyone's top speed and speed endurance is different.

From my old CIAU calculator (now called the CIS), we used 21.4 (21.64 FAT) for 200 meters and added 13.1 seconds to get a 300m conversion. This conversion only works when you are aiming for a 300m standard of 34.74.

The above conversion is a ratio of 1.633, which makes:

19.19 x 1.633 = 31.33 seconds.

Somehow, that doesn’t seem right.

Michael Johnson ran 19.32 and 30.85 which is approx a factor of 1.60

My personal bests are 21.98 and 35.15, which is also factor of 1.60

Usain Bolt will run what he runs. Even if it means a 30.70 at sea level (using x1.60) ? Now that would be nice!

But is $30,000 USD enough incentive to go for a WR?

SIDENOTE: If you do go to Ostrava (or anywhere in the Czech Republic), make sure you try the Czech dessert kolace which is a squared-shaped dough bread filled with cheese, poppy seeds, fruit such as prunes and apricots, custard pudding and honey for sweetness.